The Global Gambit

Weeks after signing a sweeping sanctions law against Russia’s energy revenues, Donald Trump has struck a deal to buy Russian diesel, announced while his envoys sat down with Ukrainian officials to discuss ending the war. Trump calls it a win. In Moscow, it looks like something else entirely. In this conversation, I’m joined by Tina Fordham, geostrategist, founder of Fordham Global Foresight, and Wall Street’s original chief global political analyst during seventeen years at Citi, who previously built Eurasia Group’s financial markets research business. We examine why Trump keeps offering deals that Putin never takes, why Putin puts power ahead of any commercial offer, and why the man many in the West mistook for a pragmatist is driven by ideology and legacy. We also look at how the Iran war, launched to project American strength, has left Washington weaker and Trump facing the midterms with soaring prices. We also discuss Putin’s Valdai remarks and nuclear sabre-rattling over Kaliningrad, what happens to…

Ukraine has transformed Russia’s vast geography from a source of strategic depth into a growing vulnerability. Its long-range drones are striking oil refineries, supply lines and military infrastructure, while Crimea is becoming increasingly difficult for Moscow to defend and sustain. But Sir Lawrence Freedman warns against assuming that Russia’s mounting failures have made Ukraine’s position easy. Ukrainian civilians face another punishing winter, ballistic missiles remain an acute threat, and Vladimir Putin continues to resist any settlement that could be interpreted as weakness. In this conversation, Freedman explains why Putin has boxed himself in, whether Russia can find enough soldiers to sustain the war, how Ukraine remains ahead in the rapidly evolving drone contest, and why the next six months could prove decisive. He also examines the economic pressures building inside Russia, the amateurism of Washington’s negotiating effort, NATO’s struggle to catch up with Ukrainian innovation, and whether Putin…

Russia’s war in Ukraine has done more than redraw Europe’s security map. It has exposed the limits of military alliances—and triggered a potentially dangerous chain reaction far beyond the battlefield. For Turkey, the choice is not simply between Vladimir Putin and NATO. Ankara is maintaining its relationship with Moscow, strengthening its position inside the Western alliance and reducing its dependence on Russia, all while seeking greater freedom to act alone. That pursuit of “strategic autonomy” may now extend to the nuclear question. Turkey expert Gönül Tol joins Pyotr Kurzin to explain Erdoğan’s carefully calibrated strategy. They discuss how Ukraine changed Ankara’s relationship with Russia; why Turkey has avoided fully choosing sides; its efforts to diversify its energy supplies; and how the Iran war and declining confidence in American security guarantees are reshaping Turkish thinking. Is Turkey actually preparing to build a nuclear weapon—or merely creating the capacity to keep that option open? And…

General Ben Hodges says Russia is already at war with Europe. Not with missiles striking NATO cities, but through drones, sabotage and attacks designed to frighten populations and weaken support for Ukraine. So why are European governments still reluctant to impose meaningful consequences? Hodges joins me to discuss Germany’s far-right breakthrough, NATO’s response to Russian provocations and the growing uncertainty over American support. We also examine how Ukraine’s long-range strikes are turning Russia’s vast territory from a strategic advantage into a vulnerability—and why Putin faces a dangerous choice over mobilisation as winter approaches. Ben Hodges is the former Commanding General of US Army Europe. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Buy Me a…

Iran has been militarily devastated — and yet, six months on, it may be winning. General David Petraeus argues that Tehran's control of the Strait of Hormuz has become a "weapon of mass disruption" more powerful than the nuclear program the war was meant to destroy. In this conversation, I'm joined by General David Petraeus — former CENTCOM and NATO commander, former CIA Director, and Chairman of the KKR Global Institute — to examine why Iran's strategy may be succeeding despite its military weakness, why Ukraine's drone war represents a genuine revolution that Western militaries have failed to adapt to, and why Petraeus believes the US and UK urgently need revolutionary, not evolutionary, institutional military reform. We also discuss Russia's deepening economic collapse, the vulnerability of manned military platforms in modern warfare, escalating Russian sabotage against NATO states, and why Petraeus believes nuclear escalation from Putin remains unlikely despite the rhetoric. If war has already changed as…

Description: Intelligence failures make headlines. Intelligence successes rarely do — which is exactly the problem when trying to understand how the West actually predicted Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and what it can and can't tell us about Putin's next move. In this conversation, I'm joined by Charles Finfrock — a former CIA officer with 18 years of experience across the Middle East, Europe, and Asia — to examine how intelligence assessments are actually built. Why there's a critical difference between a "secret" that can be stolen and a "mystery" that even Putin himself may not have resolved, how human sources, satellite imagery, and signals intelligence get fused into a single judgment, and why getting Russia's 2022 invasion right was a genuine intelligence success even if it couldn't prevent the war. We also discuss Russia's escalating willingness to target Western and dual citizens on NATO soil, Ukraine's campaign against Russian commanders and energy infrastructure, and the historical pattern behind…

Summary Iran's regime survives. The Strait of Hormuz is under threat. Gulf allies are furious. And the United States, further from its goals than when the war began, has spent months exposing the limits of its own power in the process. Jason Campbell, joins The Global Gambit to break down how Trump's Iran war became a self-inflicted collapse of American leverage in the Middle East: the depleted munitions stocks, the abandoned Gulf partners, the diplomatic sidelining on the Strait of Hormuz talks, and why China may be the war's quietest long-term winner. About the guest Jason Campbell is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute focusing on US foreign policy, defense strategy, and Middle East security, and spent fifteen years at the RAND Corporation. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon:…

Description: Former US National Security Advisor Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster joins The Global Gambit to examine why China, Russia and Iran have become the defining geopolitical challenge of our time. We discuss Beijing's support for Moscow, the changing character of warfare, NATO's future, Western fatigue over Ukraine, and why China may ultimately be the greatest long-term beneficiary of today's global instability — including whether Beijing's ambitions extend to annexing Russian territory in Siberia, and what the axis means for Taiwan and the wider Indo-Pacific. About the guest Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster served as the 26th US National Security Advisor and is one of America's leading military strategists and experts on great-power competition. Timestamps 00:00 – Introduction and General McMaster's background 01:01 – Initial developments in Ukraine and Middle East tensions 02:19 – China, Russia and Iran's strategic partnership 03:33 – The evolving character of warfare with drones and space 06:19 –…

In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin hosts Dr. Bence Nemeth to explore Europe's strategic autonomy, defense capabilities, and the evolving landscape of NATO and EU military cooperation amid the Ukraine conflict and broader geopolitical shifts. Bence Nemeth is a Senior Lecturer at the Defence Studies Department of King’s College London, where he primarily teaches British and international military officers at the Defence Academy of the UK. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambit Leave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Trump says he has secured a major breakthrough with Iran, but is the deal even worse than many are already claiming? And are details taking so long to release? Joining me today is Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, to discuss the emerging US-Iran agreement, why many analysts remain sceptical, and whether Washington is actually in a weaker position than before the conflict began. We examine the future of the Iran deal, sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, Trump's foreign policy decision-making, growing divisions within the Middle East, China's expanding influence, and what all of this means for the balance of power in the region and beyond. We also discuss Europe, the G7, Russia, and the increasingly strained relationship between America and its allies. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The…

Senator Mark Kelly just returned from Odessa. His verdict: Ukraine has effectively shut down the Russian Navy in the Black Sea — Russia can't operate there anymore. Crimea is next.Full conversation with the Senator on what he saw on the ground, the momentum shift, and why Putin is running out of options. Senator Mark Kelly is a retired Navy combat pilot, NASA astronaut, and sitting US Senator for Arizona serving on the Armed Services and Intelligence Committees. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambit Leave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more…

Ukraine just struck Putin's hometown during the St Petersburg Economic Forum. Is this a genuine shift in momentum or another false dawn in a war that keeps defying predictions? Dan Ridler, Senior Analyst for Europe at the Economist Intelligence Unit, joins to cut through the noise. We get into how the EIU actually forecasts war outcomes, why the battlefield probably won't decide this conflict, what the frozen conflict scenario gets wrong, and the one underappreciated path toward peace that most analysts are missing. Plus — how do you verify Russian economic data when Moscow keeps hiding it? And what's the single biggest variable that will determine where this war goes next? Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Buy Me a Coffee:…

America is in a moment of self-inflicted crisis — and the man responsible may not be able to find a way out. Trump has started a war he promised he wouldn't, fractured his own base, and tied his political fate to every price rise and policy failure. In this episode, I speak with Tom Nichols about why Trump's domestic troubles are uniquely of his own making, what the Iran war reveals about the collapse of MAGA's anti-interventionist promise, and whether the Republican Party can survive the contradictions Trump has created. We also explore what all of this means for Ukraine, Russia's future, and American power on the world stage. Tom Nichols is a staff writer at The Atlantic and Professor Emeritus at the U.S. Naval War College. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon:…

The ceasefire may have slowed the fighting - but according to former JCPOA adviser Alan Eyre, the underlying dynamics between the United States, Iran, and Israel have barely changed at all. In this conversation, we break down why the US-Iran talks remain stuck at “square one,” why Tehran believes time is on its side, and why the current pause in hostilities could simply be the calm before another round of escalation. Alan Eyre is Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow at the Middle East Institute. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambit Leave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See…

Donald Trump's war with Iran is the reflection of something much bigger, perhaps much worse, happening with the USA, its foreign policy and its standing in the evolving world order. Can the United States still impose political outcomes abroad without triggering wider economic, geopolitical, and strategic blowback? In this part 1 of 2 Retired Australian Major General Mick Ryan joins The Global Gambit to break down the dangerous new phase of the US-Iran conflict, why Trump’s strategy may be backfiring, and what this confrontation reveals about the future of American power. From escalation traps and nuclear deterrence to China’s growing advantage and the global economic fallout, this conversation explores why the Iran crisis is about far more than just the Middle East. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show…

The US-Iran ceasefire may still technically be holding — but experts worry and warn that it is already beginning to rot. In this conversation, we break down why Iran is targeting the UAE, why the Strait of Hormuz remains the key pressure point, and why Trump’s attempt to claim victory may be colliding with economic reality. Alan Eyre - distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute, argues that the real test is not rhetoric, press conferences, or military theatre — it is whether ships actually return to Hormuz. If maritime traffic does not resume, the crisis could become far more expensive, far more global, and far harder for Washington to control. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Buy Me a Coffee:…

Global democracy is changing and Hungary’s election may signal more than just a political shift — it could mark the beginning of a broader democratic rebound. In this episode, I speak with Katherine Stewart about whether the world is moving out of a decade-long “democracy recession,” why Orbán’s defeat matters, and what it tells us about the resilience of democratic systems. We also explore the global implications — from Ukraine and Europe to rising political risk and shifting power dynamics worldwide. Katherine Stewart is the Head of Impact Research at Economist Impact, part of The Economist Group. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambit Leave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least…

The collapse of US–Iran negotiations highlights a deeper structural problem: escalation is now outpacing diplomacy. Following a high-level meeting in Islamabad that failed to produce any meaningful breakthrough, the United States has escalated by moving to blockade the Strait of Hormuz—raising serious questions about strategy, sustainability, and the risk of broader regional spillover. In this episode, I speak with Ross Harrison about the strategic logic behind both sides’ actions. We analyse the role of coercive diplomacy, the limits of military pressure as a negotiating tool, and the increasing complexity of the conflict as Iran expands the theatre horizontally through proxies and regional pressure points. We also explore whether the United States has a coherent theory of change, how Iran is leveraging asymmetric tactics to shape outcomes, and why the absence of a clear off-ramp may be the most dangerous factor of all. Ross Harrison is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, specialising in US…

While Trump's fragile ceasefire with Iran continues to hold, Israel is now going after Hezbollah in Lebanon, putting the entire Middle East on edge. We are joined by David Daoud of the FDD to understand why Israel’s escalation in Lebanon was likely once the Iran front quietened, and why Hezbollah remains far harder to uproot than many assume. We discuss the limits of decapitation strategies, Hezbollah’s deep roots in Lebanese Shiite society, the risk of a prolonged Israeli security zone in southern Lebanon, and why Washington may see Hezbollah as a core threat without wanting direct US involvement. The conversation also explores the wider geopolitical fallout for Europe, NATO, and Israel’s standing in American politics as the war drags on. David Daoud is Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube:…

Russia’s apparent momentum in Ukraine is misleading. As David Petraeus argues, it reflects adaptation and external support rather than lasting strength, while Ukraine’s innovation has been underestimated. The war is also reshaping how conflicts are fought — with drones, decentralised tactics, and rapid adaptation replacing traditional military dominance. Ultimately, the outcome will depend less on the battlefield and more on Western unity and Europe’s economic backing, which remain decisive. David Petraeus is a retired U.S. Army four-star general, former commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and ex-Director of the CIA. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambit Leave a quick…

The conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel is entering a far more complex and dangerous phase than many expected. In this conversation, I’m joined by Ali Vaez - Iran Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President of the International Crisis Group to examine what is actually happening behind the headlines. Why the war has shifted into a grinding war of attrition, why Iran’s leadership prepared for a long confrontation rather than a quick collapse, and how the balance of power inside Iran may now be shifting toward the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). We also discuss the growing divergence between U.S. and Israeli strategic objectives, the limits of military escalation, and the wider regional risks—from Kurdish separatism to the possibility of a broader regional conflict drawing in major powers. If the fighting stops, it may only produce a fragile ceasefire, not a real resolution. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you:…

The United States has deployed one of its largest military buildups in the Middle East in decades — and yet, nothing has happened. So why assemble overwhelming force if conflict was never inevitable? In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Con Coughlin, Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor at The Daily Telegraph, to unpack the real strategy behind America’s military pressure on Iran. We explore how Donald Trump is using military leverage to force a new nuclear deal, why Iran’s weakened regional position has shifted the balance, and how Tehran is relying on diplomacy, Russia, and China to survive. This is a conversation about coercion, credibility, and why the most powerful military deployments are often designed not to be used — but to reshape the negotiating table. Chapters 00:00 The Military Buildup and Its Implications 10:01 Iran's Current Position and Internal Dynamics 19:57 The Role of External Influences and Regional Dynamics 29:42 Future Scenarios: Engagement or Conflict? Subscribe to Substack Read as…

Summary In this episode I engage Larissa Brown, the defence editor at The Times, to discuss the current state of geopolitics, defence dynamics, and the implications of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. They explore insights from the Munich Security Conference, the UK's defence spending, military readiness, and the evolving threat posed by Russia. The conversation also delves into the US-UK defence relationship, public sentiment on military spending, and the challenges facing the UK military in terms of manpower and logistics. As they look ahead, they consider the impact of populism on European defence and the importance of collaboration among European nations. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Geopolitics and Defense Dynamics 02:38 Insights from the Munich Security Conference 05:41 Assessing the UK Military's Readiness 08:26 The Threat of Russia and Hybrid Warfare 11:22 UK's Defense Spending and Political Challenges 14:08 The US-UK Defense Relationship 16:43 European Strategic Autonomy and Cooperation 19:36 The…

Summary In this conversation, Edward Lucas discusses the ongoing war in Ukraine, the influence of Donald Trump on NATO and European defense, and the shifting dynamics of power in Europe. He emphasises the need for Europe to enhance its military autonomy and the importance of a united front against Russia. Lucas also addresses the concept of the 'shadow fleet' and the implications of European actions on Russia's strategic calculations. The discussion highlights the complexities of international relations and the necessity for Europe to adapt to changing geopolitical realities. Chapters 00:00 Current State of Trilateral Talks 03:59 The Role of the United States in European Security 09:55 Europe's Defense Capabilities and Autonomy 15:47 The Shadow Fleet and European Responses 21:38 Final Thoughts and Future Outlook Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube:…

Summary In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin engages with Trita Parsi, the Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute, to discuss the evolving geopolitical landscape in Iran and the broader Middle East. They delve into the implications of the recent leadership changes in Iran, particularly following the death of President Raisi, and how this has affected the political dynamics within the country. Parsi emphasizes the incompetence of the previous government and the ongoing protests, highlighting the deep-seated frustrations among the Iranian populace regarding economic mismanagement and political repression. The conversation also touches on the significant internet blackout in Iran, which has hindered communication and information flow, further complicating the situation. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Iran's Current Landscape 14:47 Leadership Changes and Public Sentiment 17:44 The Impact of Protests and Government Response 21:45 Internet Shutdown: A Sign of Desperation 24:34 Violence and the Role of the IRGC…

Summary In this conversation, Martin Wolf discusses the current state of the global economy, emphasizing the importance of demographic changes, economic growth, and the resilience of economies in the face of challenges. He highlights the political fragility in Europe and the US, the risks associated with transatlantic relations, and the need for Europe to strengthen its position in a multipolar world. The discussion also touches on the fragmentation of regional blocks and the uncertainty surrounding the future of global governance. Chapters 00:00 Reflections on Global Economic Trends 08:52 Political Fragility and Economic Growth 17:51 The Future of Transatlantic Relations 26:37 Europe's Strategic Challenges Ahead 35:07 Navigating a New World Order Subscribe to the YouTube channel and Substack newsletter for the latest content. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube:…

Summary In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Dmitri Alperovitch delve into the intricate relationship between geoeconomics and geopolitics, particularly in the context of the United States' National Security Strategy. They discuss the implications of Trump's approach to international relations, the challenges Europe faces in achieving strategic autonomy, and the complexities surrounding tariffs and economic strategies. The dialogue also touches on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the potential risks associated with seizing Russian sovereign assets. Subscribe to the YouTube channel and Substack newsletter for the latest content. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambit Leave a quick rating—it's…

Summary In this episode of Global Gambit, host Pyotr Kurzin engages with Lawrence Freedman, a prominent figure in military strategy, to dissect the recent 28-point peace plan regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Kurzin expresses skepticism about the plan's legitimacy, noting its repetitive nature and the lack of serious diplomatic engagement. Freedman elaborates on the origins of the plan, highlighting its amateurish drafting and the absence of meaningful discussions between Russia and Ukraine. He critiques the plan's vague language and unrealistic expectations, suggesting that it may not lead to a viable resolution of the ongoing conflict. As the conversation progresses, Freedman discusses the implications of the plan for both Ukraine and Russia, emphasizing the need for a more robust diplomatic framework. He also touches on the current military situation, including the challenges faced by both sides as winter approaches. The episode concludes with a reflection on the broader geopolitical landscape,…

Summary This conversation delves into the complex and evolving tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, focusing on the recent ceasefire, the role of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and the broader geopolitical implications of the Taliban's legitimacy. Michael Kugelman provides insights into the historical context of the violence, the political instability in Pakistan, and the international mediation efforts by countries like Qatar and Turkey. The discussion also highlights the challenges Pakistan faces in managing its relationships with militant groups and the potential future scenarios for border security. Subscribe to the YouTube channel and Substack newsletter for the latest content. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Buy Me a Coffee:…

Summary In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Mitch Mechigian discuss the evolving landscape of geopolitics and finance, particularly focusing on the role of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. They explore Trump's shift from skepticism to support for crypto, the normalization of digital currencies among nation-states, and the implications of geopolitical events on the crypto market. The discussion also highlights the rise of stablecoins as a significant player in the financial system and the potential for emerging markets to lead the next wave of crypto adoption. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambit Leave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your…

Summary In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Martin Wolfe discuss the evolving landscape of global economics, focusing on the return to regionalism, the implications of geopolitical uncertainties, and the role of currencies in the modern economy. They explore the impact of Trump's trade policies, the rejection of globalization, and the future of the US dollar amidst rising nationalism and protectionism. Martin Wolf is chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, London. He was awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 2000 “for services to financial journalism”. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambit Leave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after…

Summary In this conversation, Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the intricate geopolitical dynamics involving Russia, Iran, and China, focusing on Iran's nuclear ambitions and the implications of recent Israeli military actions. The dialogue explores the vulnerabilities of Iran's leadership, the reactions of global powers, and the potential future of negotiations surrounding Iran's nuclear program. The conversation emphasizes the delicate balance of power in the region and the strategic decisions that Iran must navigate in light of its recent setbacks. Dmitri Alperovitch is a geopolitical strategist and co-founder of the Silverado Policy Accelerator. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambit Leave a quick…

Summary In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Frank Giustra about the spiralling U.S. debt crisis, the fragility of dollar dominance, and how rivals like China and the BRICS bloc are accelerating moves away from the post-war financial order. From unfunded liabilities to currency alternatives, we unpack whether the U.S. is facing a market correction — or the beginning of the end of its global economic power. Frank Giustra is a Canadian entrepreneur, philanthropist, and geopolitical thinker. He is co-chair of the International Crisis Group, founder of Lionsgate, and former CEO of Goldcorp. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambit Leave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can…

Summary This conversation delves into the intricate relationship between energy geopolitics and conflict, particularly focusing on the Iran-Israel tensions and the implications for global oil markets. Anas Al-Hajji provides insights into the strategic importance of the Hormuz Strait, the dynamics of oil pricing, and the roles of major players like the US and Russia in shaping energy policies. The discussion also highlights the future of energy demand in light of climate change and technological advancements, emphasizing that the world cannot overlook Iran's potential in the energy sector. Dr. Anas F. Alhajji is a leading energy economist and former chief economist at NGP Energy Capital, known for his global expertise in oil markets, energy policy, and macroeconomic strategy. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The…

Summary The conversation delves into the strategic significance of the Panama Canal amidst rising US-China tensions, exploring the implications of recent US military agreements and the Panamanian government's response to pressure from the Trump administration. Experts discuss the historical context of US-Panama relations, public sentiment in Panama, and the potential economic consequences of climate change on the canal's operations. The dialogue emphasizes the delicate balance Panama must maintain between its relationships with the US and China, as well as the internal political challenges it faces. Will Freeman is a Fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he focuses on regional politics, corruption, organized crime, and U.S.–Latin America relations. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/…

Summary In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Rohit Goel discuss the current state of the global economy, focusing on the impact of Donald Trump's presidency on economic policies, particularly regarding China and emerging markets. They explore the challenges facing China, the dynamics of U.S.-China relations, and the implications of de-dollarization. The discussion also touches on the potential for BRICS to create a common currency, the role of cryptocurrencies, and the future of emerging markets in a multipolar world. Rohit Goel is Partner and Head of Global Macro Research at Breakout Capital, where he leads analysis on emerging markets, global financial stability, and cross-asset macro strategy. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Buy Me a Coffee:…

Summary In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Chris Fenton discuss the emergence of DeepSeek, an AI technology developed in China, and its implications for US-China relations, national security, and the influence of technology on global narratives. They explore the role of open-source technology, the impact of platforms like TikTok, and the complexities of Trump's foreign policy towards China. The discussion highlights the challenges and opportunities presented by technological advancements and the need for the US to navigate its alliances and economic policies carefully. Chris Fenton is a U.S.–China expert, author, and former Hollywood executive who led major film collaborations between the two countries and now advises on geopolitics, business, and media strategy. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show…

Summary In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Ankit Panda, about the deepening political crisis in South Korea and its wider regional implications. They discuss the impeachment proceedings against President Yoon Suk-yeol, the potential rise of progressive opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, and the resilience of South Korea’s democratic institutions. The conversation also explores North Korea’s expanding involvement in the war in Ukraine, China’s geopolitical manoeuvring, and what these developments mean for the future of U.S.–South Korea relations and security dynamics on the Korean Peninsula. Ankit Panda is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, specialising in East Asian security, nuclear strategy, and U.S. foreign policy toward the Koreas. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube:…

Summary In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Wladimir van Wilgenburg, journalist at the Kurdish Chronicle, about the dramatic collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the shifting power dynamics across the region. They discuss the rapid advances by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and other rebel groups, the fall of key cities including Aleppo, Homs, and Hama, and the surprising absence of intervention from Assad’s key allies, Russia and Iran. The conversation also explores the roles of Kurdish forces, Turkish-backed rebels, and the potential impact of an incoming Trump presidency on Syria’s future and broader Middle East stability. Wladimir van Wilgenburg is a journalist and analyst specialising in Kurdish and Middle Eastern affairs, with a focus on Syria, Iraq, and regional conflict dynamics. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube:…

Summary In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Marlene Laruelle about the ideological foundations of Vladimir Putin’s regime and Russia’s evolving identity under his leadership. They discuss the tension between restoring the Soviet Union versus the Russian Empire, the influence of strongman politics, and how Russia’s future may unfold amid growing friction with NATO and shifting U.S. leadership. The conversation also explores the prospects for democratic change, the role of Russian nationalism, and the West’s ability to shape societal trends within Russia. Marlène Laruelle is a research professor at George Washington University and an expert on Russian ideology, nationalism, and authoritarianism in the post-Soviet space. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon:…

Summary In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Richard Gowan, UN Director at the International Crisis Group, about the growing challenges facing the United Nations and the leadership of Secretary-General António Guterres. They discuss the contrasting messages delivered by world leaders at the UN General Assembly, including those from President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu, and explore the UN’s role in addressing humanitarian crises and global conflicts. Gowan reflects on the limitations of the General Assembly, the pressures facing Guterres, and the uncertain future of multilateral diplomacy in a fractured international landscape. Richard Gowan is the UN Director at the International Crisis Group, where he analyses the United Nations’ role in global conflict resolution, diplomacy, and multilateral policy. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube:…

Ukraine’s frontline is holding, but the real battle may be behind closed doors. As peace talks falter, Russian forces regroup, and Western support for Kyiv begins to fray. In this episode, former UK Defence Attaché John Foreman joins me to unpack the fragile diplomacy, shifting battlefield tactics, and the deeper power struggles shaping the war’s next phase. We explore how Russia’s economy is adapting under sanctions pressure - barely, and why internal shakeups in the Kremlin could point to a regime preparing for escalation, not peace. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambit Leave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where…

In this episode l am rejoined by Ankit Panda as we delve into the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, particularly focusing on the recent military clashes and the implications of their nuclear doctrines. Ankit provides insights into the current crisis, comparing it to past conflicts and discussing the role of the United States in de-escalation efforts. The conversation also touches on the influence of domestic politics, the evolving military capabilities of both nations, and the potential impact of China's military developments on the region. Ankit Panda is Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Watch our talk on YouTube: https://youtu.be/P3xwmHg9g7I. Support the show on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube:…

In this podcast, I was joined by Candace Rondeaux to discuss her new book, Putin's Sledgehammer, on the rise and fall of Russia’s Wagner Group, particularly the aftermath of its 2023 mutiny. Candace explores the historical origins of the Wagner Group, its ties to Russia's mafia, and its key role in Russia's global operations. She delves into the evolution of the group under Prigozhin, highlighting its use in proxy wars and mercenary operations in Africa, Ukraine, and Syria. We also cover the power struggles between Putin and Prigozhin leading to the group's collapse and an examination of Wagner’s lingering influence on global security. Candace Rondeaux is the Senior Director of Future Frontiers at New America. Check out her book, Putin's Sledgehammer here: https://amzn.to/4me0FMB Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/…

In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Mihaela Pappa discuss the evolving role of BRICS in the context of global politics, particularly in relation to US foreign policy under the Trump administration. They explore the implications of BRICS as a symbol of a multipolar world, its initiatives in development and health, and the challenges it faces in terms of internal dynamics and divergence among member countries. The discussion also touches on the potential for BRICS to influence global currency dynamics and its positioning in addressing universal challenges like climate change and sustainable development. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambit Leave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the…

In this conversation, I am rejoined by Dmitri Alperovitch to delve into the latest of the Ukraine War, focusing on the diplomatic engagements between the US and Russia, the strategic decisions made by Ukraine, and implications of Trump's foreign policy. We discuss the limited leverage the US has in influencing both Russia and Ukraine, the challenges of negotiating peace, and the realities of a war of attrition. We touch on the role of NATO, European defence strategies, and the significance of mineral deals in the context of US support for Ukraine. This episode is sponsored by Military Metals Corp (CSE: MILI, OTCQB: MILIF, FSE: QN90). Learn more: www.militarymetalscorp.com/investors. Support the show: https://www.patreon.com/c/theglobalgambit/home Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon:…

In this episode, I react to and explain the implications of Trump's tariffs from both an economic and geopolitical perspective. I highlight the historical context of tariffs, their intended purpose, and the potential consequences for international relations and the US economy. I also argue that while tariffs may seem beneficial in the short term, they could lead to significant long-term challenges, including supply chain disruptions, increased prices for consumers, and weakened alliances with traditional partners. The discussion emphasises the interconnectedness of economic policies and global power dynamics. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambit Leave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly,…

Welcome to the Global Gambit 2025 - after some minor time off, we're back with more conversations and content, including more from me. This time starting with the 5 biggest geopolitical risks and themes in 2025! This time Pyotr discusses the major geopolitical risks and themes that could shape 2025, including the implications of Donald Trump's return to power, the ongoing US-China strategic competition, the autocratic relations involving Russia and Iran, the rise of political violence and extremism, and the increasing risks associated with technology and AI. Each of these themes is explored in depth, highlighting the interconnectedness of global events and the potential consequences for international stability. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin Follow The Show X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The Show Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Buy Me a…

In this conversation, Pyotr is joined by (ret) Colonel Bob Hamilton and now Head of Eurasia Research at FPRI to discuss the current situation in Ukraine, focusing on Zelensky's victory plan, public sentiment regarding the war, military strategies, and the implications of foreign support. We explore the complexities of defining victory, the role of NATO, and the technological adaptations in warfare. The discussion also touches on the involvement of North Korea and China, as well as the complacency of European nations in responding to the threat posed by Russia. Follow me for More X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support my Work Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambit Please leave the show a rating - its quick, easy and free to do, but helps me out tremendously. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin…

Pyotr is joined by the esteemed Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies, King's College London. We focus on the war in Ukraine and the conditions for a negotiated settlement and the challenges in reaching any such agreement. We debate motivations behind Putin's actions and the implications for the use of military force in international relations including role of NATO and the concerns of Russia regarding its expansion. The principal themes discussed in the conversation include the challenges faced by NATO in satisfying Putin, the impact of events like the Kosovo War and the Orange Revolution on Russia's perception of the West, the importance of self-determination, the role of international law and norms, the rise of China as a global power, the complexities of the Russia-China relationship, and the need for the West to be aware of its limitations and engage in honest conversations about trade-offs. Follow me for More X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube:…