The Bulwark Daily

Donald Trump is still dangerous, but voters clearly signaled that they had had enough of the moral collapse he ushered in. The electorate yearned for candidates who spoke about their faith-based values—not just Talarico and Hamilton, but Ossoff and El-Sayed as well. The vibe shift is so real that even ICE collaborator Alex Karp wants to be friends with the Democrats again. Ezra also predicts that Dems in the new Congress will be economics-first, with a particular focus on healthcare reform. And the party will end its unstinting support for Israel.

Too many voters in 2024 wanted to be with the bully party. But a lot of them saw how much cruelty that entailed—particularly with ICE and the attempted theft of voting rights. Nick also thinks that more members of the manosphere now recognize that being really mean is not a sign of strength.

Trump’s loyalist foot soldiers in Congress are still sticking by him but the power of the presidency is ebbing away from him.

Nearly a week after the midterms, Trump made a feeble rigged election claim. He also made a phony offer to work with Democrats on an immigration deal, hoping somehow to distract them from their oversight powers. And like a true mob boss, Trump elevated tough guy Stephen Miller to keep the administration from falling apart—and to protect the grift. But he knows he was swamped in a massive defeat and that the country now has the possibility of a very different future. Still, the ICE terror state is ongoing, and the Dems have to push for the release of nonviolent immigrants from the internment camps.

The MAGA coalition is falling apart, Fox News is flummoxed, and Trump is having to grapple with being rejected by huge swaths of America. Steele only has double birds for Republicans who played along with the 10-year hijacking of the party and are now trying to clean up their act. And in a way, the country gave double birds to the administration over DEI, based on the diverse slate of candidates who’ve won statewide office all over the place.

Kansas Senator-elect Hamilton was not recruited out of the Democratic Party pipeline. The Methodist pastor chose to challenge Roger Marshall because he didn't like what was happening in the country, including with ICE agents and cuts to healthcare. But he was also bothered by people in DC claiming to be Christian but not acting like it.

Republicans are already starting to plan for a post-Trump future after last night's wipeout. Sarah, JVL, and Tim savor the victories, including Talarico's and Hamilton's, which represent a complete rebuke of the politics of the Trump era; and physician-senator Annie Andrews who will actually challenge the quackery of RFK Jr. But there's also time for tears for Elon: After wasting hundreds of millions of dollars to try to buy a senator, JVL reminds him to get an apartment near Capitol Hill (or maybe flee to a country that would want him).

If the repudiation of our corrupt president comes through tonight, Democrats are promising to hold everyone to account who helped him turn our government into a playground for profit and vengeance. In addition to exposing the First Crime Family, Rep. Raskin tells Tim that Dems will also focus on impeaching Hegseth and reclaiming public lands that were given away to plunder. In Texas, Ryan says the Trump era has induced people to behave horribly and lean into what's wrong.

The Iran war and its impacts at home are major issues in the midterms, but POTUS is not finished with his misadventure in the Middle East. One key Democratic senator who's been briefed on the war plan says it's "insane" and would lead to a "devastating escalation" of the conflict. In rosier news, the polls continue to look good for the Democrats.

Our vice president made up a confusing story about a trip to an emergency room because almost everything he does is a performative act to play to voters he thinks are dumb. Over at the White House, POTUS flip-flopped and un-canceled his Midwest rallies—so there will be more opportunities for the flat-out racism to keep flowing into Election Day.

Is it possible Adam Hamilton could be the first Democratic senator elected from Kansas in 94 years? A major new poll is raising hopes there—and in other key Senate races as well. At the same time, the Peltola campaign's unnecessary Sullivan plot is a gift to election deniers.

Trump's (surprisingly) current favorite pollster shares what he's seeing in the numbers less than one week before Election Day. The first sign of what kind of night the Dems are going to have will come when the polls close in Kentucky. But we may have to wait until the wee hours of the morning to learn what happens with the Senate. The Bulwark will be live at 7pm ET.

Democrats offered a glimpse of the accountability that's likely coming over the Epstein cover-up: new allegations of rape against Trump and evidence that strongly suggests Epstein introduced Melania to Trump. And of course, POTUS is standing by Vivek's ad with an endorsement from a mother who inflicted a pedophile on her own daughter.

There was good news over the weekend on the anti-authoritarian front in Brazil and Serbia, while our wannabe autocrat is ominously threatening to not accept midterm election results he doesn't like. Still, early voting numbers among Dems in key states—along with black voters in the South and Latinos in Texas—are encouraging signs.

Elon Musk is the largest single donor in American political history. He's also the world's most prominent booster of white supremacy. While Democrat after Democrat gets asked about Hasan Piker, most reporters don't seem to ask Republicans about the views of the man who's pumped nearly a half billion dollars into their Senate campaigns. Nor do they ask about the destruction he rained down on our government under DOGE.

Democrats on the House Oversight Committee are already divvying up how to investigate Musk, the one-time shadow president who's still making foreign policy decisions about the war in Ukraine. Also on tap for hearings is the impeachable Hegseth, who ironically broke the iconic globe used by Eisenhower—a man who actually knew how to fight a war. And of course there's self-enriching Jared Kushner, who pretends to do diplomacy with his Putin-worshipping sidekick, Steve Witkoff.

Could there be a bigger sign of Ramaswamy's depravity and desperation than using a mother from hell to sell your message? His campaign for governor of Ohio against Amy Acton has been a nightmare from the beginning. Meanwhile, Murphy senses kryptonite in the water around Trump as well, particularly with the farm belt in revolt over tariffs and the price of diesel. But in Michigan, El-Sayed has got to cool it on the cocky bro stuff in the final days of his campaign.

Though they deny any involvement, the Trump administration and Elon Musk are apparently helping Putin escalate his campaign of terror against Ukraine. Civilian casualties across Ukraine are rising—including women and children—but Trump said Monday that Russia "has been fine on Ukraine." At the same time, Team Trump looks to be lining up business deals with Russian energy companies. And Marco's whitewashing of it all is sickening.

The vice president had the gall to suggest he didn't know anything about what millions of Americans know: that Trump is using his office to enrich himself and that the administration made major mistakes in executing the war in Iran. But the polls strongly suggest a rebuke of Putin's biggest fan is coming because of the conflict in the Middle East.

For more than 10 years, Trump has been showing us how skilled he is at sowing division and riling people up. Alan sees the kind of tribal mentality that Trump has fostered on his own reality show, "The Traitors," where contestants make incredibly stupid decisions because they don't want to deviate from the pack. The actor takes the opportunity to urge people to vote, protest, and stay vigilant in the face of the Republicans' campaigns of hate against immigrants and trans people. (And that includes Vance's dumb, dated gay jokes.)

Mike Johnson sure sounds afraid of what might come out when the House—under Democratic control—actually does its job and investigates the corruption of this administration. Democrats should start with the families of Trump officialdom who've been making bank since Inauguration Day. And as the Guilfoyle firing shows, everyone in Trumpland is expendable.

Elon is now pitching in to help POTUS sabotage Ukraine while Trump makes a payout to Putin and works on his next self-enrichment scheme. A Cooper victory in North Carolina would be key to a potential Democratic Senate majority—a first step to reining in Trump—but the former governor warns Tim that Republicans have historically been undercounted in the polls and his lead should not be taken for granted.

Americans are living in a more dangerous world now because of Donald Trump. Not only because of his now-expanding war in the Middle East, but also through his reckless advocacy of AI. And in his desperation over the midterms, he's cut a sinister deal with Putin, the very same man helping Iran to kill Americans. Rice tells Tim this is not the time to be complacent over the good polling numbers. Just go vote.

Not only did the lamest of October surprises blow up in the faces of Ken Paxton and the rightwing loons desperate to get Talarico on something, Greg Abbott is now in a tight race with his Democratic challenger, Gina Hinojosa. And all the money pouring in to prop up Paxton could be better spent on Senate races in Alaska and Kansas. This would be a great time for the Democratic Governors Association to steer (a lot) more funding Hinojosa's way.

While the cult of Trump is dragging Republicans' popularity down, the Democrats have good, ideologically diverse candidates running all over the place. And voters aren't stupid: They know Trump's war and his tariffs are why prices are higher. But high-profile polling misses in recent years still haunt Dems, so Adam takes a deep dive into whether Republicans are doing better than the polls are showing.

The king of the birther conspiracy knows he needs to round up the white male vote, so he's serving up one of his old faves—straight-up anti-Muslim bigotry. And he's added a new one: Making Americans pay for another political ad, this time about what a tough guy he is. But Trump also has another corruption problem, courtesy of Trump Jr.'s ex-fiancée, Amb. Kimberly Guilfoyle, who seems to have a habit of calling in very expensive favors.

Florida's Democratic nominee for the Senate says average Americans right now are living in the dreams of oligarchs and the super-rich, and it's time for regular people to live their own dreams. The progressive maverick promises to fight to help all Floridians—regardless of party—to be healthy, prosperous, and safe. And while Republicans like to point out Nixon's DSA affiliation, the Trump administration itself is acting socialist, while also sending immigrants back to countries like Cuba and Venezuela.

Destroying trust in the government is one of Trump's key sources of power, but Michael reports from the front lines of the deep state that there still are good employees serving the public interest. In his new book, Michael celebrates some of the heroes who either managed to survive DOGE—or were stupidly pushed out despite the vital roles they filled. And the absolute failures of DOGE raise serious questions about how Elon could be trusted to run any enterprise.

Like all good demagogues, Trump's appeal works when he's got someone to blame. But it's on his watch that we've got a war-related global food crisis brewing and mass layoffs in Ohio—where Trump just happened to hold a rally over the weekend. So, POTUS is focused on getting his family more money through a new bribery scheme while Republicans struggle to demonize Dems and throw away resources on Paxton.

What is going on with Trump's legs? He appears to be wearing a brace and a recent video shows him standing in a most unnatural way—as though he is mid-exorcism. But his apparent health issues don't seem to be stopping the administration from re-escalating against Iran with an additional 10,000 troops on their way to the region. Meanwhile, Trump's son-in-law, Jared (AKA the point person on the Gaza peace deal) turns out to be a war profiteer heavily invested in Israeli bomb-making companies.

Finally, some accountability in Washington: Sen. Eric Schmitt’s general counsel and poster-holder is in career limbo after the infamous basketball mix-up in the Jack Smith hearing. And Americans seem to be holding Trump responsible for their economic frustrations—he’s below the Bush Line. Josh Barro explains: We’re not in a recession, but people feel stuck because borrowing costs are higher. Big budget deficits are inflationary, the president’s war of choice is making things worse, and our leaders don’t have a plan to deal with any of it.

The Trio comes together on the daily pod for the first time to give a little taste of the MAGA-land news Sam, Will, and Tim are covering for The Bulwark. The latest developments include speculation that Candace Owens may be a lesbian and that Florida gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds pretended he was Jamaican. He may also have very poor judgment on financial matters. But first, Maria talks with Tim about Eric Schmitt and what may be the biggest self-own in the history of the Senate.

Vigilance is still in order, but Trump’s efforts to rig the midterms have so far flopped. And that includes Trump’s self-sabotaging of his own plan to blame China for hacking our voting machines. But should the Dems win back Congress, they’re going to be busy tracing all the money that was stolen for the ballroom, the arch, and Pentagon contracts with Trump family members.

The Trump administration stole our tax dollars to run a campaign ad during NFL games on Sunday. They're also breaking the law on congressional funding appropriations—and enjoying rubbing the public's face in all the illegality they're getting away with. In Dayton, The Bulwark had its largest live show ever, and the community came through in a huge way with donations for Haitian immigrants in Springfield. For a taste of the event, we're sharing Tim's interview with Democratic strategist Patrick Gaspard.

Trump pulled out all the stops at the state dinner to regale the guy who is working with our enemy: Not only has China been helping Iran target and kill American soldiers, it's also been shipping Tehran component parts for drones and missile guidance systems. Senate Republicans, of course, blocked an effort to end the war as one of their last votes before the midterms. Meanwhile, election deniers keep showing us that they're going to try to monkey around with the election results in November.

First, Sam Stein sits down with Tim to discuss the latest humiliation of our troops: Trump’s red carpet welcome for President Xi. Plus: the White House’s insane propaganda machine, a new Maine poll throws some cold water on the midterms hopium, Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s obsession with furries, and is RFK Jr. running for president? Then, Tim pulls back the curtain on his interview with Mary Peltola, which wrapped just hours before a new critical New York Times piece dropped.

The cozy White House Correspondents' Dinner, where Trump joked around with reporters, was only in July. But now he's ripping away press credentials and setting up state-run media. Sarah scolds the WHCA for bending the knee to Trump to begin with. And recent Italian history even foreshadowed the Trump era. Jason, in his new book, explains how Silvio Berlusconi learned how to become the central character in the media. The more he was talked about, the more powerful he became—and the more his opposition became trapped.

The party has been busy playing defense in Trump states, and now comes the news that Susan Collins is corrupt on top of being a loyal MAGA supplicant. More Democrats should walk with Ossoff's swagger and keep their message simple: attack Trump on his corruption and the war. (And in colder climes, the price of heating oil.) Meanwhile, subpoenas over Trump Jr.'s Russian mobster-funded wedding are coming, and even some Republicans are likely to get on board.

As Trump’s war of choice continues to expand in the Middle East, it’s clear that the president is desperate not to show how weak he really is. The administration is out of time and out of both strategic and rhetorical options in Iran. Another sign that he is flailing: Trump is trying to ban CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from the White House press pool. But other TV outlets are pushing back in solidarity, forcing Trump to choose between two of his favorite things: punishing his critics and dominating the airwaves.

In Greenland, the Trump administration has got tech bros and hedge fund guys running an influence operation there. The aim may be to fulfill Trump's territorial ambitions—or to create a sovereign state run by CEOs. In Venezuela, the administration is imperialistically seizing its gold, oil and other assets with no oversight. And in Brazil, the White House is trying to bring the Bolsonaro family back to power—which may or may not have something to do with Elon being angry about the country's tech regulation laws. In Trump 2.0, informal envoys, private companies, and hardened ideologues are turning American diplomacy upside down.

Republicans are reeling, the vibes are shifting, and the wave is building. Jesse serves up a particularly optimistic view of the Democrats' chances in the midterms, with even stretch districts now in play. And ahead of Saturday's Ole Miss-LSU game, Wright shares how Mississippians are responding to the gutting of the Voting Rights Act and says that conservative farmers in the state are turning on MAGA.

The Fed raised interest rates to curb inflation, as expected, but mortgage rates are surging and flailing Scott Bessent remains the treasury secretary. Meanwhile, the alarm raised in the AI community is not an op despite the backlash from people like Nvidia's Jensen Huang, who seems to get everything he wants from Donald Trump.

The co-author of the signature book inside Trump 2.0 says the media only knows 5% of what is happening inside the administration—particularly when it comes to national security, the money-making, and the self-dealing. Jonathan does have new reporting about how the administration keeps pretending that our military is not running low on long-range missiles. In reality, the war is costing us a month's worth of Patriots almost every day.

A Putin bestie who's involved with the kidnapping of Ukrainian children bankrolled Don Jr.'s island wedding for some mysterious reason. Kushner is calling on Ukraine to give in to Putin's territorial demands. And Trump himself is blaming Zelensky for the high cost of diesel even though prices shot up after Trump launched his war of choice. It's the whole Trump family that tends to remind us of their close ties to Russia, Russia, Russia. Meanwhile, POTUS is not troubled by China's involvement with the death of U.S. soldiers in the Mideast.

Rudy Giuliani and others who purport to represent the families of 9/11 victims ginned up the idea that it would be wrong for the Muslim mayor of NYC to attend Friday's memorial at ground zero. Republican politicians and Laura Loomer keep pushing their trash Islamification conspiracy. And a law-abiding Muslim family has been imprisoned for five months because Rubio declared them a national security threat—and most of the media could care less. At the same time, Tucker has a new, large Muslim fan base because they like what he's saying about Gaza and the Palestinians, even though he's a solid anti-Muslim bigot who just hates the Jews more right now.

As Sarah explains in her new book, Trump has been so successful teaching a new generation of Republicans about the political value of vice signaling that Nazi talk and racism has become the norm among young MAGA edgelords. Disdain for women is also a key element. One former true believer, Pedro, says the right sees all of Trump's corruption and abuse of power as justified because he's focused on the country's true enemies: brown people, immigrants, and their white allies. And Vance buddying up to the racists shows that he is the real heir apparent to Trump.

With Republicans in tight races stripping Trump’s name off their campaign websites, the president is in need of some love from Republicans he has summoned to Dallas to celebrate him. The fake convention also conveniently serves as a distraction from the surging price of oil. Plus: Vance may be the source who’s leaking about the missile depletions, Fox is giving more leeway for criticism of Trump, anti-Muslim hysteria is driving the complaints about Mamdani attending the 9/11 memorial in NYC, and Jessica from “The Five” has what she’s calling a “survival manual” for how to talk about politics with your MAGA friends and family members.

From politics to sports, business, and tech, the rich are breaking the rules, looking out for their friends, and still getting rewarded in the end—maybe with the help of a little trip to the White House with a POTUS gift in hand. For the midterms and beyond, Adam is bullish in his new book about the Dems' prospects to win on a grand scale and pass the kind of policies that help regular people. Part of the trick is cooling it on the purity tests over fraught issues like Israel. And in this Trump era, when accountability is so scarce, Pablo shows with his Pulitzer-winning reporting on the LA Clippers that consequences are still possible.

With just under two months until Election Day, Tim and Bill revisit the run-up to the midterms in 2006 and 1994, two major wave election cycles where the bottom just fell out from under the party in power. The 1994 blowout was more about the end of an era, while 2006 was about an unpopular war in the Middle East, a scandal, and a disappointed base. What do those wave elections suggest about the prospects for a big blue year in 2026?

Marco Rubio is using dubious powers to create a new class of immigrant political prisoners. Meanwhile, DHS officials are bragging about how they're brutally shackling and frog-marching Haitians who came here under protected status. On this American holiday weekend, David takes a "nerd moment" to explain that the Founders always intended our Constitutional liberties to apply to noncitizens as well—including even despicable Milo Yiannopoulos.